As of October 29, 2026, FMI's fifth annual Power of In-Store Bakery report finds the department outpacing every perimeter category except meat in dollar sales, with nearly three-quarters of shoppers saying an in-store bakery is important at their primary store. The survey of 1,519 US grocery shoppers, fielded August 1 to 8 and sponsored by Rich Products, also puts the department ahead of the packaged bakery aisle on freshness, taste, service and product innovation.
Bakery is the second-strongest perimeter department
The headline is a ranking, not a growth rate. Outpacing other perimeter departments in dollar sales means the bakery is holding its share of a basket that is being squeezed elsewhere, which is a narrower claim than saying the category is expanding quickly. FMI's own framing supports the careful reading: shoppers treat the department as a destination, and destinations get visited even when total spend is flat.
The supporting data points the same way. In the four weeks to September 27, perimeter bakery sales reached 1.6 billion dollars with units down 0.6 percent, while the centre-store aisle took 2.0 billion dollars with units down 3.1 percent. Over 52 weeks, perimeter dollars rose 2.2 percent to 22.7 billion dollars. Fewer units lost on a smaller base is what resilience looks like in a flat market.
Where the packaged aisle still wins
The centre aisle wins on shelf life, price per unit and predictable replenishment, and those advantages do not disappear because shoppers say they prefer fresh. The realistic split is occasion-based: fresh for the meal in front of them, packaged for the week ahead. Retailers that merchandise the two as substitutes lose the argument on price; retailers that merchandise them as a sequence keep both.
Freshness, taste and service are the attributes that travel
FMI reports the department outperforming the commercial bakery aisle on freshness, taste, service and product innovation. Read as a shopping list, that is a specification for the next range review. A new line that cannot claim at least two of the four is competing with the packaged aisle on the packaged aisle's terms, and it will lose that comparison on price and shelf life.
Service is the attribute most often left out of range planning, because it is a labour cost rather than a product feature. Yet it is the one a wrapped loaf cannot copy. A bakery that keeps a staffed counter through the evening peak is selling advice as much as bread, and the survey suggests that is part of what shoppers are paying for.
| Attribute | In-store bakery | Packaged aisle | What it means for a range review |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freshness | Advantage | Baseline | Date code and bake schedule |
| Taste | Advantage | Baseline | Recipe and fat content |
| Service | Advantage | Not offered | Counter staffing at peak |
| Product innovation | Advantage | Faster at scale | Test speed per store |
Meal solutions are the next test
The report's recommendation is stronger meal-solution merchandising, which is the same direction grocers are already taking with ready meals. Bakery can supply the bread, the dessert and the breakfast item in one trip, but only if the range is organised by occasion rather than by category. A shelf grouped by breakfast, lunch and dinner reads faster than a shelf grouped by bread, cake and pastry.
Turning a survey into a shelf plan
The plan is deliberately small: one department, four attributes, one occasion per endcap. What makes it work is the audit rhythm. A weekly count of what sold out before noon is the cheapest available signal that a line has earned more space, and it costs a store manager a few minutes rather than a reporting project.
FAQ
What does the FMI report actually measure?
It is a survey of 1,519 US grocery shoppers fielded August 1 to 8, supplemented with sales and household panel data, with a maximum sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Is the in-store bakery growing?
It is holding share better than other perimeter departments. Perimeter bakery dollars rose 2.2 percent over 52 weeks while units fell 0.6 percent in the latest four weeks, which is resilience rather than rapid growth.
Why does service count as a product attribute?
Because a wrapped loaf cannot copy it. A staffed counter turns a purchase into advice, and the survey shows shoppers rate the department higher on service than the packaged aisle.
Where should a range review start?
With the four attributes the department already wins on. A new line should claim at least two of freshness, taste, service and innovation, or it is competing on the packaged aisle's terms.
