As of October 28, 2026, FMI - The Food Industry Association's "Power of In-Store Bakery 2026" report finds in-store bakery sales up 2.3 percent to $22 billion, with 91.6 percent of households buying from the department. The bakery is outpacing every perimeter department except meat in dollar sales, and bread and muffins led category growth at 6.5 percent and 5.8 percent respectively. For teams working on product concepts, the report also exposes a gap between what shoppers say they want and what most stores actually stock.
The findings that matter
The headline numbers are straightforward. Sales reached $22 billion, up 2.3 percent, and 91.6 percent of households buy from the department, which makes it one of the broadest reach categories in the store. Bread grew 6.5 percent and muffins 5.8 percent, and three in four shoppers include bread or rolls in their meal plans, while 69 percent add them to meals at least sometimes. Bread is not a specialty purchase; it is a routine one.
The report is based on an online survey of 1,519 United States grocery shoppers conducted between August 1 and 8, supplemented with NielsenIQ sales and household panel data, with a maximum sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. It is the fifth annual edition and is sponsored by Rich Products Corp. Steve Markenson, vice president of research and insights at FMI, noted that nearly three-quarters of shoppers say an in-store bakery is important at their primary grocery store.
Where the innovation gap sits
The clearest gap is assortment, not demand. More than 60 percent of shoppers say they would like to see cultural or ethnic bakery items in stores, but only 44 percent believe their current store offers them. That spread is unusual in a department that already reaches 91.6 percent of households, because it means the unmet demand sits inside an existing shopping trip rather than requiring a new customer to be recruited.
The competitive framing helps explain why the gap persists. FMI reports that the in-store bakery outperforms the commercial bakery aisle on freshness, taste, service and product innovation, which is where the department's advantage lives. Adding ethnic items plays directly to those attributes, but it also demands production flexibility that many in-store operations do not have, which is why the intent to stock rarely converts into shelf space at the same speed.
Bread is the traffic item
Bread functions as the department's anchor. With three in four shoppers putting bread or rolls into meal plans and 69 percent adding them at least sometimes, the item set drives trips rather than riding on them. That makes bread the right place to test production capacity changes, because any improvement in freshness or variety shows up in a category almost every household already buys, which shortens the feedback loop considerably.
Ethnic assortment is the open lane
The 16-point gap between wanting ethnic items and finding them is the most actionable number in the report. It suggests a product concept question rather than a pricing one: which specific items, in which regions, at what pack size, and whether they are baked in store or supplied chilled. Answering those four questions per market is a far more useful exercise than adding a generic international label to an existing line.
Category by category, the shopper signal
The table below pairs each reported category result with the shopper signal behind it and the product concept question it raises. Growth rates come from the FMI report, while the concept questions are analytical prompts rather than findings. Separating the two keeps a research summary from turning into a plan before the underlying data has been checked.
| Category | Reported growth | Shopper signal | Product concept question |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bread | 6.5 percent | Three in four include bread or rolls in meal plans | Can freshness or variety be improved without new equipment |
| Muffins | 5.8 percent | Impulse and breakfast occasions | Which pack sizes fit single-household baskets |
| Ethnic bakery items | Not reported separately | Over 60 percent want them, 44 percent find them | Baked in store or supplied chilled, by region |
| Health-positioned items | Not reported separately | Over three-quarters say nutrition influences purchases | Which claims can be supported by the recipe |
What to verify before adding items
Assortment additions fail quietly when the production side cannot support them, so the checks below start with capacity rather than with demand. Each step produces a field that can be reviewed weekly, and the sequence is designed so that a weak item is removed before it consumes shelf space for a full quarter. The thresholds differ by store size and should be set locally.
FAQ
How large is the in-store bakery department?
$22 billion in sales, up 2.3 percent, with 91.6 percent of households buying, according to FMI's Power of In-Store Bakery 2026 report.
Which categories grew fastest?
Bread grew 6.5 percent and muffins 5.8 percent, leading category growth within the department.
What is the biggest unmet demand?
More than 60 percent of shoppers want cultural or ethnic bakery items, but only 44 percent believe their store currently offers them.
How was the research conducted?
An online survey of 1,519 United States grocery shoppers from August 1 to 8, supplemented with NielsenIQ sales and panel data, with a maximum sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
