As of November 8, 2026, two independent reads of India's festive season point at the same shift, and it is not about volume. ClickPost's analysis of more than 8 crore orders across nearly 400 direct-to-consumer brands puts order volume up 27 percent and gross merchandise value up about 45 percent, roughly 1.7 times faster. The gap between those two numbers is the part of the season a brand can actually plan against, because it separates category growth from order growth.
The number that moved was value, not order count
ClickPost compared a window running September 20 to November 5 this year against September 1 to October 17 last year, and its own explanation for the gap is unusually direct: shoppers bought higher priced products despite rising retail prices, rather than trading down to cheaper alternatives. Spending concentrated in high value categories, namely luxury fashion, skincare, wellness and jewellery, which is the opposite of what a discount led festive season is supposed to produce.
There is a measurement caveat worth stating plainly. A separate ClickPost cohort of 200 brands, each shipping more than 500 forward orders in both years, flagged that the 2026 comparison window included a full weekend while the 2025 window did not, which may have lifted the reported growth. The direction of the mix shift survives that caveat because it appears in average order values and category splits, not only in totals.
Where the extra rupees went: jewellery, skincare and wellness
Category growth of this shape is what makes the mix argument checkable. Jewellery stayed the top festive gifting category and the average value of a prepaid order rose 7.4 percent to Rs 5,773. In nutrition and wellness the average prepaid order value rose 11.1 percent to Rs 936. Beauty and personal care was the largest category by volume, with orders growing between 33 and 39 percent across every city tier.
| Category or segment | Reported metric | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jewellery, prepaid order value | Rs 5,773 | up 7.4 percent |
| Nutrition and wellness, prepaid order value | Rs 936 | up 11.1 percent |
| Beauty and personal care, orders | largest by volume | up 33 to 39 percent |
| Fashion, Tier 3 cities | orders | up about 33 percent |
| Fashion, Tier 2 cities and metros | orders | up about 29 percent |
Precious metals on ten minute delivery make the same point from a different angle. Zepto's chief executive said the platform was delivering more than 14,000 gold and silver coins per hour at its Dhanteras peak, with about 298 coins in a single minute, while Swiggy Instamart reported gold coin orders up 23 times in the week before Dhanteras and silver coins up seven times. Flipkart Minutes recorded a threefold order increase between October 30 and November 5.
Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities delivered more punctually than metros
Reliability moved in the same direction as value, which is the less obvious finding. Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities received 83 percent of festive orders on time against 78 percent in Tier 1 metros, and Tier 3 improved from 74 percent a year earlier. Average delivery time fell from more than three days to about two and a half days nationwide, failed delivery attempts dropped to 21 percent of orders from 22 percent, and the share returned undelivered fell to 10 percent from 11 percent.
The shape of the season explains part of it. Dussehra, Karwa Chauth and Diwali fell within 18 days, and late October alone produced more than 10 high volume days, each matching or exceeding last year's single peak shipping day. Networks that used to be stressed once were stressed repeatedly, and the ones that held were the ones with local inventory rather than a single distant warehouse.
Hyperlocal share on brand sites doubled in a year
Prepaid overtook cash on delivery
Brands are now offering fast delivery on their own websites and apps in addition to selling on quick commerce platforms, and hyperlocal deliveries rose to 5 percent of orders on brand owned platforms from 2.6 percent a year earlier. That is a channel decision as much as a logistics one: the same order routed from a nearby store carries a different cost, a different return rate and a different promise than one shipped from a central warehouse.
Payment mix moved faster than basket size. In the 200 brand cohort, prepaid shipments rose 47 percent against 27 percent for cash on delivery, taking prepaid to 52 percent of shipments from 46 percent. Median basket values barely moved, at Rs 1,044 for prepaid and Rs 870 for cash on delivery, which says the growth came from more orders rather than from bigger ones. When both facts are true at once, the extra value in the market is coming from mix, not from the average shopper spending more per basket.
What a brand should rebuild before the next festive window
The practical lesson is to stop reporting festive performance as a single growth number. Orders, value, category mix, city tier reliability and payment type move at different speeds and answer different questions, and averaging them produces a figure that hides which lever worked. A brand that separates the five can tell whether it gained share in a category or simply rode a price increase.
The four fields that make the comparison honest
FAQ
Why did value grow faster than order volume?
Because the basket moved toward higher priced categories such as jewellery, skincare and wellness, and shoppers accepted higher retail prices instead of trading down. Growth in units was real but smaller than growth in value.
Does the longer comparison window explain the whole gap?
No. The shifted window, which included an extra weekend, can inflate the order growth rate, but it does not explain why average order values rose inside individual categories on a like for like basis.
What should a brand track on its own product pages next season?
Units and value separately, by category and city tier, plus prepaid share and median basket. Those four fields separate a demand gain from a price gain, which is the distinction festive reporting usually blurs.
Is quick commerce still a marginal channel for D2C brands?
Not on this evidence. Hyperlocal delivery reached 5 percent of orders on brand owned platforms and precious metal orders on quick commerce platforms grew in multiples, which is well past the trial stage.
Sources
- Business Standard, D2C brands see 27% more orders ahead of Diwali; sales value up 45%: Report
- The Economic Times, 14,000 gold and silver coins delivered per hour as Diwali shopping shifts to quick commerce
- Indian Television, India's D2C festive shipments jump 31.4 per cent as smaller cities drive demand
