As of 5 November 2026, the clearest signal in US grocery is not growth but divergence. Circana's latest CPG Demand Signals report put online food and beverage sales up 15.5 percent in the four weeks to 4 October, while sales through physical stores fell 2.8 percent over the same stretch and total sector sales slipped by less than 1 percent. Brick Meets Click measured a related shift in the third quarter, with online grocery up more than 20 percent and delivery alone up over 30 percent. For brands and retail teams, the question is no longer whether shoppers buy online. It is which store network, which assortment and which availability promise the order actually runs through.
Two Channels, Two Directions in the Same Market
The two figures do not describe the same shopper moving from one door to another. Circana's four-week cut compares a growing channel inside a slightly shrinking market, and the report is explicit that these are sales measures rather than proof that households bought more food. What it does show is a market where the digital order and the store trip are being priced and planned differently. From an industry trend perspective, the split reflects where inventory sits rather than a shift in shopper preference, which is why channel growth and store economics can move in opposite directions at once. That distinction matters for distribution planning, because a channel that grows on planned baskets behaves nothing like one that grows on impulse at the endcap.
The Basket Behind the Divergence
Circana describes a shopper who is cautious but not retreating. Households are cutting waste, trading down to store brands, adjusting pack sizes and balancing price tiers. Perishables such as dairy, produce, meat, baked goods and prepared foods declined year over year, with produce singled out after a difficult stretch earlier in the year. Nonperishables including baking supplies, beverages, shelf-stable meals and snacks moved higher. That split explains part of the store decline: a shopper who plans the basket online avoids the spoilage risk that a large in-store stock-up creates.
Why Delivery Carried Most of the Gain
Brick Meets Click's third-quarter reading is more specific than the four-week cut. Online grocery sales rose more than 20 percent and reached a record share of total grocery spending, with delivery responsible for roughly three quarters of the increase while pickup grew in the mid single digits. That mix is the important part. Pickup asks the shopper to absorb the last mile. Delivery asks the retailer to absorb it, which only works when the fulfillment network is dense enough to keep the cost per drop inside the fee the shopper will pay.
This is where store networks stop being a loyalty asset and start being a cost structure. Kroger reported flat comparable-store sales in its latest quarter while digital grew 20 percent. Ahold Delhaize's US operations posted comps up less than 1 percent against e-commerce growth above 14 percent. Albertsons recorded negative same-store sales yet an 11 percent digital increase. In each case the physical footprint still anchors the order, but the growth is happening through a channel that charges the retailer for the final leg rather than the shopper.
Availability Beats Proximity
Once the order is placed online, proximity stops being the differentiator and availability takes over. A store two miles away that cannot confirm stock converts nothing. The operational question becomes whether the item is on shelf, whether the count is accurate, and whether the promise made at checkout survives the pick. Retailers that treat availability as a data problem rather than a logistics problem tend to see the same pattern: the delivery promise improves before the margin does, because the cost of a substitution or a cancelled line lands after the order closes.
| Channel | Who absorbs the last mile | Core operational metric | Typical failure mode |
|---|---|---|---|
| In-store trip | Shopper | Sales per square foot, basket size | Out of stock discovered at the shelf |
| Pickup | Shopper, at a fixed slot | Slot utilisation, substitution rate | Order ready late, items swapped without notice |
| Delivery | Retailer or a third party | Cost per drop, on-time rate, fill rate | Stock count wrong, drop cost above fee |
What the Store Network Still Does
The store has not become irrelevant. It has become the node where availability is decided. Food retailers with dense footprints can serve delivery from existing inventory, which keeps capital expenditure lower than building dedicated fulfillment centres. The trade-off is that store-picked orders compete with walk-in shoppers for the same shelf, and the store that loses a sale to an online order recorded as a digital win may still lose the margin. That accounting gap is why some retailers see digital growth and flat profit in the same quarter.
For brands, the practical consequence is that distribution coverage now has to be read at two levels. At the retail level, the question is whether the item is ranged in the stores that actually fulfil online orders. At the digital level, the question is whether the item's price, pack size, availability and image are consistent across the retailer's site, the marketplace listing and any third-party surface that quotes it. A product that is fully distributed but inconsistently described will lose the online order without ever appearing in a stockout report.
FAQ
-
Does a 15.5 percent online gain mean shoppers left physical stores?
Not directly. The Circana figures compare channel growth rates, not household-level movement, and the report notes they cannot establish the size of any transfer. Read them as a signal that the online channel is expanding while the in-store channel contracts, then confirm with your own trip and basket data.
-
Why does delivery growth matter more than pickup growth for a brand?
Because delivery changes who owns the last mile and therefore who carries the cost of a wrong count or a substitution. When delivery drives most of the increase, fill rate and availability accuracy become commercial metrics rather than operational housekeeping.
-
Which metric should a brand watch first in this split market?
Fill rate in the stores that fulfil online orders. It connects assortment, stock accuracy and the delivery promise in one number, and it degrades quietly before revenue does.
Sources
The figures in this article come from three public sources published in the first week of November 2026. The Circana four-week comparison and the Brick Meets Click quarterly read are reported by AXO News and AsiaEurope respectively, while MarketMaze sets out the methodological limits of both datasets. The three pages describe different periods and different methods, so the growth rates should be read as directional agreement rather than a single series.
