As of 30 October 2026, Coles has reported revenue growth of 2.2 per cent to A$11.2 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, with its supermarket segment up 2.7 per cent on a comparable basis, while Woolworths reported A$19.4 billion in sales, up 4.7 per cent. With annual headline inflation at 4.3 per cent in the twelve months to September, both chains are growing more slowly than prices, and Coles says customers are shopping across multiple retailers and focusing on promotions and loyalty programmes.
Promotion depth is now the growth lever
When basket growth trails inflation, the only lever left is share of a shrinking basket, and that share is won on promotion depth rather than on range. Coles' own commentary points the same way: customers are value-conscious, comparing across retailers and responding to loyalty offers, which makes the depth and frequency of discounts the number to watch.
E-commerce grew 22.9 per cent in the quarter, far ahead of store sales, which changes how promotion depth has to be measured. An online basket can be compared line by line in seconds, so a shallow promotion that works on a shelf talker may simply lose the click, and the price gap becomes visible to every shopper at the same moment.
Three things a price audit should capture
Depth against the reference price
A discount only means something relative to a reference price, and retailers routinely move that reference before a promotion. Price monitoring should record the pre-promotion price over several weeks, not the shelf price on the day the promotion starts, or the measured depth will overstate the saving.
Coverage across the basket
Promotions on a handful of hero lines can lift the headline number while the rest of the basket drifts up. Coverage, meaning the share of a representative basket that is actually discounted, is a better read on whether a shopper's total bill falls than the depth of any single item.
Channel consistency
The same item can carry different prices in store, in the app and through a delivery partner, and shoppers now check all three. Inconsistent pricing across channels is the most common source of complaint, and it stays invisible unless the audit collects every channel on the same day.
Building the weekly price file
| Field | What it records | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Item identifier | Stable barcode or pack size | Prevents substitution errors |
| Channel | Store, app or delivery partner | Catches channel gaps |
| Reference price | Four-week pre-promotion average | Measures real depth |
| Promotion mechanic | Percentage, multi-buy or coupon | Compares like with like |
| Coverage share | Discounted lines in a fixed basket | Shows whether bills fall |
A weekly file should hold the item, the channel, the shelf price, the reference price and the promotion mechanic, captured on the same day each week. Four weeks of that file will show whether a chain is buying share with depth or simply repricing the category, and the two have very different consequences for suppliers.
The file also needs a stable item list. Retailers rotate pack sizes and multi-buys during promotional periods, so an audit that follows a fixed barcode will miss the substitution and report a price fall that never happened at the till, which is worse than reporting nothing.
What suppliers should do with it
The output is only useful if it changes a decision. A supplier that sees depth rising while coverage narrows should expect pressure on a few hero lines and plan supply accordingly, rather than assume the whole category is being promoted and fund a broad discount that nobody in the category actually asked for.
FAQ
Why measure coverage as well as depth?
Because deep discounts on a few lines can lift a headline number while the rest of the basket rises, so coverage shows whether a shopper's total bill actually falls.
Why use a pre-promotion reference price?
Retailers sometimes move the reference before a promotion, so a four-week average gives a truer picture of the saving than the shelf price on day one.
Does channel consistency really matter?
Yes. Store, app and delivery prices can differ, and shoppers compare them, so inconsistent pricing across channels is a common source of complaints.
What does slower-than-inflation growth imply?
That volume is soft. Growth below the inflation rate means shoppers are buying less or trading down, which pushes competition onto promotion depth.
