Nearly two-thirds of US shoppers plan to skip some purchases this holiday season, and the cuts are landing on the least essential items first: costumes, candy and decorative add-ons. A LendingTree survey cited by Retail Dive found that 43% of Gen Zers and 35% of millennials say they are likely to take on debt to fund Halloween this year, against 14% of Gen Xers and 2% of baby boomers. For retailers, the signal is not that demand disappeared, but that the basket is being rebuilt item by item.
Key Conclusions
The first conclusion is that seasonal categories are being treated as discretionary line items rather than as a single holiday bundle. When shoppers decide to skip candy but still buy a costume, the assortment logic that pairs them in one promotional display stops working. 43% of Gen Zers may take on debt（Retail Dive） is the clearest evidence that the pressure is concentrated among younger households, who are also the most responsive to bundled offers and payment options.
The second conclusion is that the holiday season will be decided by trade-down mechanics rather than by traffic. Retailers that plan around unit volume will misread the season, because the number of trips can stay flat while the average basket loses its low-margin filler. The operators who win will be those that protect the anchor purchase and let the accessories shrink, instead of discounting the whole set to defend a headline number ( Retail Dive).
How the Seasonal Basket Is Being Rebuilt
A Halloween basket usually contains three layers: the costume, the candy, and the disposable decoration. The survey evidence points to cuts in the second and third layers, which together often account for a third of the transaction value but carry a disproportionate share of the markdown risk. Retail Dive also found that 51% of shoppers who took on debt regret overspending, citing pressure to keep up appearances and prices higher than expected.
Why candy is the first item to go
Candy is the most substitutable item in the basket. A household that expects fewer trick-or-treaters can simply buy less, and a household hosting a party can move to a cheaper format without losing the social signal. That elasticity makes candy the first line to be cut, which matters because candy is also the highest-frequency impulse purchase in the seasonal set and the item most often used to drive basket size.
The debt split by generation
The generational gap is the most actionable part of the data. When 43% of Gen Zers say they may borrow for a holiday that costs, in most households, less than a weekly grocery bill, the issue is not affordability alone but the social cost of opting out. Retailers that offer small-ticket installment options and lower entry price points can capture that cohort without deep discounting across the entire assortment.
Best Practices
The most useful operating response is to separate the anchor purchase from the filler purchase in both planning and display. In practice that means three moves: protect full-price availability on the costume itself, convert candy into a small-format impulse item near checkout, and use decorations as a margin recovery category rather than a traffic driver. Each move keeps the trip profitable even when the basket shrinks ( Retail Dive).
Protecting the anchor item
Costumes are the reason for the trip, so availability matters more than promotion depth. Running out of popular sizes in the final ten days pushes shoppers to marketplace sellers and permanently loses the accessory attachment. A better approach is to hold back a reserve of core sizes for the last week and to publish accurate size availability online, so the shopper can confirm before travelling to a store.
Turning candy into an impulse item
Moving candy from a seasonal aisle to checkout-adjacent small packs changes the decision from planned to spontaneous, and it lowers the entry price. The same volume sold in smaller units protects gross margin because the price per ounce rises while the absolute spend falls. This is a well-established mechanic in grocery and it applies directly to a season where households are explicitly trimming the filler.
Common Mistakes
The first mistake is discounting the whole bundle to defend a volume target. A blanket markdown trains shoppers to wait, and it destroys the margin on the anchor item that would have sold at full price anyway. The second mistake is reading flat foot traffic as healthy demand, when the basket composition has already shifted toward lower-value items. The third is ignoring payment friction, which disproportionately excludes the youngest cohort, the group most willing to spend on the season.
A fourth and less obvious mistake is treating regret as a marketing problem. When 51% of borrowers say they regret overspending, the follow-up purchase behaviour changes: those shoppers avoid the category next year and they avoid the retailer that sold them the upgrade. Building a lower-cost entry option is therefore not charity, it is customer retention work that pays back in the following season rather than the current one.
What the September Sales Number Does Not Say
September retail sales rose 6.7% year over year, which reads like a strong consumer. The composition tells a different story: much of the gain reflects higher price levels rather than more units, and the categories carrying the increase are not the discretionary seasonal ones. Retail Dive tracks core segments excluding food, auto and fuel, so the headline already strips out the most inflation-sensitive categories and still shows growth driven by price.
The practical implication is that a retailer can post positive comparable sales while selling fewer units, and that gap is exactly where seasonal categories get squeezed. Planning teams that model units rather than revenue will see the weakness earlier, and they will be the ones who avoid carrying unsold costumes into November at a 70% markdown.
Summary
The Halloween season is showing what a value-conscious holiday looks like before the main event: shoppers keep the reason for the trip and cut the accessories around it. Retailers who protect the anchor item, convert filler into small-format impulse purchases and offer low-friction payment will hold margin even as baskets shrink. Those who discount the bundle will buy volume they cannot afford.
The next checkpoint is the November read on holiday spending, where ICSC expects the total to clear one trillion dollars while nearly half of shoppers say they may borrow to fund it. If that borrowing shows up alongside flat unit volumes, the seasonal reset seen in October will repeat at a larger scale in December.
Data Sources
1. Retail Dive Halloween budgets
2. Retail Dive ICSC holiday survey
3. Retail Dive September retail sales
FAQ
Why are candy and costumes the first items shoppers cut?
A: Both are substitutable. A household expecting fewer visitors buys less candy, and decorations can be reused, while the costume itself remains the reason for the trip and is harder to skip entirely.
What does the generational debt split indicate?
A: That budget pressure is concentrated among younger households: 43% of Gen Zers and 35% of millennials may borrow for Halloween, against 14% of Gen Xers and 2% of baby boomers.
Should retailers discount the full seasonal bundle?
A: No. A blanket markdown trains shoppers to wait and erodes margin on the anchor item that would have sold at full price; protect the anchor and shrink the filler instead.
How can stores defend basket value when units fall?
A: Move candy to checkout-adjacent small packs, keep a reserve of core costume sizes for the final week, and treat decorations as a margin recovery category rather than a traffic driver.
What does the 6.7% September sales gain really show?
A: Much of it reflects higher price levels rather than more units, so a retailer can post positive comparable sales while selling fewer items, which is where seasonal categories get squeezed.
Why does overspending regret matter commercially?
A: Shoppers who regret a purchase avoid the category and the retailer next season, so offering a lower-cost entry option is retention work that pays back in the following year.
References
1. Halloween without candy: what shoppers cut
