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2026-11-13BXT Data Editorial

Wholesale Stockout at Case Level

Wholesale Stockout at Case Level article image

“A case is not twelve bottles” is how one wholesale buyer describes the problem, and that sentence explains why the most expensive number in Brazilian wholesale this quarter is not the profit line but the unit. Assai reported last-mile sales up 204 percent across 104 stores in the third quarter, monthly customer traffic above 40 million and a private label range that reached 140 SKUs on the way to 250. Those numbers describe a cash-and-carry format that has turned part of its floor into a delivery operation, and they raise a measurement problem that most availability dashboards are not built to answer, as at November 13, 2026.

Why a wholesale basket breaks unit metrics

Known factsUnverified claimsTo verify
Assai last-mile sales grew 204 percent across 104 storesWhether the base is orders or revenueDisclosure note in the filing
Monthly customer traffic exceeded 40 millionHow much of it is professional buyersLoyalty card segmentation
Private label reached 140 SKUs with a 250 targetWhich categories the new SKUs enterCategory level split
Gross revenue reached 21.3 billion reais, up 2.7 percentHow much came from deliveryChannel level revenue

A consumer buys one bottle. A restaurant buys twelve. When both arrive at the same node, the item-level fill rate can read healthy while the case-level fill rate is failing, because the last case is committed to single unit orders that arrived earlier in the day. The metric is not wrong, it is measuring a different promise than the one the buyer made to their own kitchen.

The split matters more in Brazil than in most markets because the wholesale channel serves a large base of small foodservice operators who plan production around a delivery. A missing case is not a delayed purchase, it is a menu item removed for the evening. That asymmetry is why case-level availability deserves its own line in the report rather than a footnote under units.

Where the 204 percent actually came from

Store density did the work

Growth of that size in a single quarter rarely comes from new customers. It comes from an existing network being switched on: stores that already hold the assortment start shipping from the back room, and the marginal cost of the first order is close to zero because the stock is already paid for. That is also why the growth rate will compress once the easy stores are connected, and why the next leg depends on nodes that need new labour rather than new stock.

Assortment depth is the constraint

A retail store carries what sells on the floor. A delivery node has to carry what sells online, and the two lists overlap without being identical. In wholesale the divergence is sharper because the online buyer skews toward heavy, bulky and repeat items that a shopper will not carry home. Building SKU coverage for delivery therefore means adding depth in categories the floor already treats as destination purchases, not adding new categories for novelty.

What to instrument before December

MetricLevelWhy it matters
Fill rateNode and itemRegional averages hide a node that is out of fast movers
Case fill rateNode and caseThe promise a professional buyer actually made
Pick timeNode and hourShows where labour caps the promise
Substitution rateNode and categoryReveals assortment gaps before they become complaints
On-time handoverNode and shiftLate-day orders break first

None of these five is exotic. The reason they are rarely reported together is organisational: fill rate sits with supply chain, pick time sits with store operations, and substitution sits with the category team. A delivery promise is a cross-functional product, so the dashboard has to be assembled across functions before it can be trusted.

There is also a sequencing point. Increasing depth in the fastest movers usually lifts availability more than widening the range, because the constraint in a delivery node is space and pick time, not shelf ambition. Brands that argue for new listings before fixing depth in existing ones tend to see the listing added and the availability unchanged.

Three checks for case-level fill

The three checks are ordered by cost rather than by importance. Splitting demand takes an afternoon of query work, the ranking needs a weekly refresh, and the handover comparison needs a shift level report that most networks already produce for customer service. Running them once shows where the gap sits. Running them weekly shows whether the fix held, which is the only version of the metric that a peak season can use.

  1. Split demand into single-unit and case-level orders at each node before calculating fill rate.
  2. Rank the top 500 sellers by case-level fill and look for nodes that fail the same item.
  3. Compare promised windows with actual handover for orders placed after four in the afternoon.
FieldExample
Order typeUnit or case
Fill rateBy type and node
Top seller rankPosition in the node range
Handover deltaMinutes late after the cut-off
OwnerSupply chain or store operations

FAQ

  • Why does case-level fill matter if units are still available?

    Because the buyer who orders a case cannot substitute it with twelve separate units at the same cost. When the last case is committed to single-unit orders, the item shows as available while the professional buyer is out of stock, and the report that says otherwise is measuring the wrong promise.

  • Is the 204 percent growth repeatable?

    The first wave is, because it comes from switching on stores that already hold stock. The second wave requires picking labour and deeper assortment in those nodes, which is a slower and more expensive process. Expect the rate to compress as the easy stores are connected.

  • How should a brand use this when talking to a wholesale account?

    Ask for distribution coverage by node rather than by banner, and ask which of the fastest online sellers are present in the nodes that serve the brand's own repeat buyers. That conversation produces a stocking list instead of a complaint about shelf space.

Sources