As of November 5, 2026, Costco's October sales release and the analyst note that followed describe a membership retailer pulling two levers at once: fuel prices that lift the top line without selling an extra item, and a store network that keeps converting member trips into bigger baskets. Net sales reached $24.50 billion for the four weeks ended November 1, up 12.6% from $21.75 billion a year earlier, while comparable sales rose 11.1% as reported and 7.3% once gasoline prices and currency changes are stripped out.
What the October release actually shows
The headline number is easy to misread. Comparable sales of 11.1% include a fuel tailwind worth roughly 3.9 percentage points, because the global average gasoline price sits about 35.5% above its level a year earlier. Core comparable sales, which remove both fuel prices and foreign exchange, grew 7.3% for the company, with the United States at 8.1%, Canada at 3.5% and other international markets at 6.9%. (source: October sales report)
The nine-week picture is consistent rather than a one-month spike. Net sales for the first nine weeks reached $54.52 billion, up 12.8%, with comparable sales of 11.3% as reported and 7.5% on the core basis. That consistency matters for anyone reading the numbers as a demand signal: a single strong month can be weather, calendar or a stumble by a rival, but nine weeks of the same pattern points to something structural in the membership base. (source: nine-week results)
Traffic, ticket and the fuel distortion
| Metric | Four weeks to November 1 | Nine weeks | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | $24.50 billion | $54.52 billion | up 12.6% and 12.8% year over year |
| Comparable sales, total company | 11.1% | 11.3% | includes fuel and currency effects |
| Comparable sales ex fuel and FX | 7.3% | 7.5% | closest measure of underlying demand |
| United States, ex fuel and FX | 8.1% | 8.1% | second fastest month of the past 13 |
| Digitally enabled sales | 22.5% | 20.5% | 22.6% excluding foreign exchange |
| Global foot traffic | 4.1% | not disclosed | United States up 3.8% |
| Unit volume ex fuel and FX | 3.1% | not disclosed | 6.8% including fuel and FX |
The split between traffic and ticket is where the fuel effect hides. Costco reported 4.1% more visits worldwide and 3.8% more in the United States, while unit volume grew 6.8% including fuel and 3.1% excluding it. When visits rise more slowly than sales, the difference is being carried by the average basket, and part of that basket is simply the price at the pump rather than a decision by the member to buy more groceries.
The category detail supports that reading. Grocery grew in the mid-single digits, fresh food in the high-mid single digits and non-food in the high single digits, while ancillary businesses grew in the low-30% range, with gasoline alone contributing growth in the mid-40% range on a comparable-gallon basis. Gift cards, sporting goods and home furnishings were named as standouts, which is what a healthier member budget looks like when it shows up in discretionary categories.
What operators can copy, and what they cannot
The fuel flywheel depends on scale
The mechanism Jefferies described is a flywheel: price leadership at the pump brings members onto the site, and the visit converts into in-warehouse spending, which in turn supports renewal rates and market share. The catch is that the entry ticket is scale. A retailer without the volume to buy fuel at a favourable cost cannot use price as a traffic instrument, and copying the tactic without the cost base usually converts a traffic gain into a margin loss.
Digital is the second engine
Digitally enabled sales, which cover purchases initiated on a device whether fulfilled by a warehouse, a distribution center or travel, grew 22.5% as reported and 22.6% excluding foreign exchange. That is roughly three times the core comparable growth, and it changes the role of the store network: warehouses increasingly double as fulfillment nodes, so the value of a location is no longer only what it sells across the counter but also what it can ship for the trade area around it.
For operators watching this release, the practical lesson is about measurement discipline rather than imitation. Reporting one comparable number hides whether growth came from price, from traffic or from mix, and the three imply completely different responses in assortment, staffing and capital spending. Costco's own disclosure separates reported and core figures, and separates traffic from ticket, which is why the release can be read for consumer demand rather than only for headline growth.
The store count adds context to the network story. Costco operated 943 warehouses at the end of the period, including 651 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 115 in Canada, 43 in Mexico, 37 in Japan and 29 in the United Kingdom, alongside e-commerce sites in nine markets. Growth of 12.6% in net sales on a base that large is difficult to attribute to new openings alone, which pushes the explanation back to existing members spending more often and more per visit. (source: official release)
FAQ
How much of Costco's October growth came from fuel prices?
Fuel price inflation contributed about 3.9 percentage points to comparable sales, with the global average gasoline price roughly 35.5% higher than a year earlier. Core comparable sales excluding fuel and currency grew 7.3%.
Did members actually buy more items?
Unit volume grew 6.8% including fuel and foreign exchange, and 3.1% excluding both, so there was real volume growth, but a large part of the reported increase reflects price rather than more units.
How fast is the digital business growing?
Digitally enabled sales rose 22.5% as reported and 22.6% excluding foreign exchange for the four weeks, and 20.5% over the nine-week period.
What does the store network add to the sales result?
Costco operated 943 warehouses, including 651 in the United States and Puerto Rico, and the store network now works as both a sales floor and a fulfillment node, so member traffic and digital orders compound on the same asset.
What should a smaller retailer take from this release?
The measurement habit, not the fuel tactic. Separating reported from core growth and traffic from ticket tells you whether a gain is durable, while copying fuel price leadership without the cost base usually trades margin for visits.
