As of 5 November 2026, two data sets published days apart describe the same shopping weekend from opposite ends. A survey of 4,363 consumers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia finds that planned budgets are 17 to 32 percent below last year. An analysis of 49,318 online stores finds that shops which made no preparations still received 5.8 percent more traffic in November, while their orders fell 3.5 percent. Put together, the numbers describe a discount calendar that has to work harder on a smaller basket, and a pricing problem that starts before the first markdown is published.
What the two data sets measured
The Omnisend survey covers four markets and asks shoppers what they intend to spend during Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Between 44 and 55 percent say they plan to take part, which is roughly the same participation as last year. The change sits in the amount. Average planned spend falls to 336 dollars in the United States from 479, to 267 pounds in the United Kingdom from 390, to 325 Canadian dollars from 458 and to 377 Australian dollars from 455, which the report reads as cuts of 17 to 32 percent depending on the market.
The Hostinger analysis, reported by Retail Connections, looks at what stores actually did. It groups 49,318 ecommerce stores by the first Black Friday action they took: three to five weeks before, one to three weeks before, during the final week, or none at all. Traffic, orders and sales value are then compared with each store's own August to October baseline. The gap between the groups is the part that matters for pricing, because traffic arrived almost everywhere while revenue did not.
A budget that shrinks by a third meets a bigger crowd
The survey's most useful detail is not the headline cut but where it happens. The share of shoppers planning to spend more than 1,000 dollars, pounds or the local equivalent roughly halved in the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada, while spending in the lower and middle brackets is expected to grow in all four markets. That is a composition change rather than a boycott, and it moves the average order value down even when the number of shoppers holds steady.
Discount sensitivity explains why the crowd still shows up. Between 52 and 57 percent of shoppers say the size of the discount influences them most, 34 to 38 percent point to free shipping, and 19 to 26 percent respond to bundles and limited-time offers. Category demand is broad but softer than last year, with clothing and accessories at 38 to 42 percent, tech at 33 to 37 percent and toys at 26 to 31 percent. A shopper who intends to spend less is still comparing offers, which makes the published reference price the first thing that gets checked.
Traffic without orders is a pricing signal
When traffic rises 5.8 percent and orders fall 3.5 percent in the same set of stores, the usual explanations are site speed, stockouts or delivery promises. The store data points somewhere more specific. Average sales value in unprepared stores fell 6.2 percent, which is a steeper drop than the order decline, meaning the baskets that did convert were smaller. Traffic arrived, product pages were viewed and the offer did not survive the comparison.
Where the discount promise breaks
Three failures repeat in a shrinking-budget season. A discount is measured against a reference price the shopper cannot verify, so the offer reads as noise. A coupon exists but is not reflected in the price shown on the product page, so the shopper discovers the real price at checkout. A category that drove last year's volume, such as appliances or electronics, is discounted deeply while the cheaper categories the shopper now wants are not discounted at all. Each failure produces the same outcome: a visit without an order.
That is why price order monitoring has to look at the price actually paid, not the discount claimed. The Hostinger data note adds a useful frame for expectations. Across its stores, Black Friday delivered 2.02 times the orders of an average October day in 2023, and 1.77 times in 2025, as spending spread into the surrounding days. The eight-day window from the Monday before to Cyber Monday now carries only about 11 percent of the quarter's orders, and for the median established store the Friday itself is worth roughly 1 percent of the quarter, which is what an ordinary day would bring.
Prepared stores grew while unprepared stores paid for the visit
| Preparation | Traffic vs baseline | Orders and sales value |
|---|---|---|
| No action | up 5.8 percent | orders down 3.5, value down 6.2 |
| One to three weeks before | up 13.2 percent | orders up 34.2, value up 36.7 |
| During the final week | not disclosed | positive on average |
| All prepared stores | not disclosed | orders up about 16, value up about 23 |
The table is the practical core of the store analysis. Every group that took at least one action before the sale increased both orders and sales value on average, and the group that started one to three weeks out recorded the strongest relative growth. The advantage also outlived November: prepared stores stayed 13.7 percent above their order baseline in December and 3.3 percent above it in January, while unprepared stores remained below baseline in both months.
The window that outperformed
Only 25.8 percent of the stores in the 2025 study made even one change before the sale, which means the majority competed with the same pages, the same offers and the same payment setup as in October. Half of the unprepared stores saw orders fall by more than 20 percent, against 22 to 27 percent of prepared stores depending on when they began. For a pricing team, that is an argument for treating preparation as a condition of the discount, not as an operational extra.
Reading price order when budgets are smaller
Four checks cover most of the risk. First, verify the reference price behind every published discount against the store's own recent price history, because a markdown measured from a recommended retail price tells the shopper nothing. Second, confirm that coupon, bundle and payment-method conditions are reflected in the price on the product page, since a later surprise at checkout converts a smaller basket into an abandoned one. Third, track the price gap on the same SKU across channels, as a shopper comparing with generative AI now sees several retailers in one answer. Fourth, keep a record of what was promised, what was charged and what was returned, because in a season where 30 to 40 percent of shoppers say they would use buy now, pay later, the effective price includes the instalment terms.
The budget data and the store data agree on one point. The volume of visits is no longer evidence that the offer works. What separates the stores that grew from the stores that absorbed traffic and lost sales is whether the price they published could survive a comparison, and whether the buying journey was ready before the crowd arrived.
FAQ
Are shoppers actually planning to skip Black Friday?
No. Participation is stable at 44 to 55 percent across the four markets surveyed. What falls is the amount each shopper expects to spend, with the biggest change among those who planned to spend more than 1,000 in local currency.
Why did traffic rise in stores that made no preparations?
Because the platform-wide promotion still sends visitors to every store. The analysis found unprepared stores received 5.8 percent more traffic than their own baseline, but orders fell 3.5 percent and sales value fell 6.2 percent, so the visits did not convert.
How much does the timing of preparation matter?
Stores that started one to three weeks before the sale recorded traffic up 13.2 percent, orders up 34.2 percent and sales value up 36.7 percent. Every preparation group improved on average, but the earliest and latest groups did not publish the same detail.
What should a price check cover during the sale?
The reference price behind each discount, the post-coupon price shown on the product page, the price gap for the same SKU across channels, and the instalment terms where buy now, pay later is offered.
