Based on public information available as of November 8, 2026, Australian retail spending rose 4.9 per cent in the year to September to $39.91 billion, down from 5.6 per cent annual growth in August, according to Australian Retail Council analysis of ABS household spending data. The average hides a wide split: pharmacy and cosmetics grew 8.1 per cent while department stores and large online retailers managed 1.7 per cent, and that spread is where on-shelf decisions now get made.
The 4.9 per cent average hides an 8.1 to 1.7 split
Six category groups moved at very different speeds in the year to September. Other retailing, which includes pharmaceutical and cosmetic retailing, grew 8.1 per cent to $7.18 billion and was the fastest group. Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services followed at 7.4 per cent to $5.98 billion, and household goods retailing rose 4.1 per cent to $6.55 billion. Department stores and large online retailers were slowest at 1.7 per cent to $1.64 billion, a figure that matters because that group is where range breadth is usually used as the defence.
| Category group | September 2026 | Year on year |
|---|---|---|
| Other retailing, including pharmacy and cosmetics | $7.18 billion | up 8.1 per cent |
| Cafes, restaurants and takeaway | $5.98 billion | up 7.4 per cent |
| Clothing, footwear and accessories | $3.06 billion | up 4.9 per cent |
| Household goods | $6.55 billion | up 4.1 per cent |
| Food retailing | $15.50 billion | up 3.3 per cent |
| Department stores and large online retailers | $1.64 billion | up 1.7 per cent |
Clothing, footwear and personal accessories grew 4.9 per cent to $3.06 billion, exactly in line with the sector, but that was down from 5.2 per cent annual growth in August and monthly spending in the category rose only 0.3 per cent. A category that tracks the average while losing momentum month to month is the hardest kind to plan shelf space for, because the annual number says hold and the monthly number says trim.
Food growth was mostly price, and that changes the facing count
Food retailing rose 3.3 per cent to $15.50 billion against a 3.2 per cent increase in food and non-alcoholic beverage prices over the same period in the September CPI. Almost all of the growth was price. Retailers also kept their own price increases below headline inflation of 4.3 per cent, with clothing and footwear up 0.4 per cent and furnishings, household equipment and services up 0.8 per cent, which means volume, not price, is carrying those categories.
Volume is the number that moves facings
When value growth is price, units are flat and the shelf plan should not change. When value growth outruns price, units are moving and the category earns more space. Applied to September, pharmacy and cosmetics and cafes are the groups where volume is doing the work, food is the group where it is not, and department stores are losing both. The practical consequence is a space review in the first quarter rather than a promotion plan in the fourth, because availability follows space.
Availability has to be read by category, not by store
A single on-shelf rate for a store hides the fact that one category can be running at 95 per cent while another sits at 80 per cent. The September split gives a reason to break the measure down: if pharmacy and cosmetics are growing at 8.1 per cent, an out-of-stock in that aisle costs more per facing than the same gap in food, where growth is tracking inflation. Category-level on-shelf rate, weighted by category growth, is the ranking that tells a store team where to spend the replenishment hour.
State splits change where the space goes
The state numbers are not a rounding detail. The Northern Territory grew 9.1 per cent to $361.1 million, Western Australia 6.4 per cent to $4.85 billion, Queensland 5.3 per cent to $8.86 billion and South Australia 5.2 per cent to $2.60 billion. Victoria and Tasmania both grew 4.9 per cent, New South Wales, the largest market at $11.92 billion, grew 4.0 per cent, and the ACT grew 3.8 per cent.
| State or territory | September 2026 | Year on year |
|---|---|---|
| New South Wales | $11.92 billion | up 4.0 per cent |
| Victoria | $9.85 billion | up 4.9 per cent |
| Queensland | $8.86 billion | up 5.3 per cent |
| Western Australia | $4.85 billion | up 6.4 per cent |
| South Australia | $2.60 billion | up 5.2 per cent |
| Tasmania | $827.8 million | up 4.9 per cent |
| Australian Capital Territory | $652.7 million | up 3.8 per cent |
| Northern Territory | $361.1 million | up 9.1 per cent |
Growth in the small markets is faster but the base is thin: the Northern Territory adds roughly $30 million on these numbers, while New South Wales adds close to $460 million even at 4.0 per cent. Reading the percentage column alone would send replenishment investment to the wrong places, which is why the ranking that matters is absolute contribution first and rate second.
What the peak season asks of availability
The Reserve Bank has cut its household consumption forecast to 1.4 per cent growth in the year to December and to June, from 1.6 per cent, and the rate increase that landed this week sits in front of Black Friday and the Christmas trading period. Consumer sentiment fell sharply in September and deteriorated again in October. Glenn Fahey, chief economist at the Australian Retail Council, said the figures suggest spending is beginning to reflect the weakness in confidence that has been visible for some time.
For a store team, that combination argues for a narrow peak plan: protect availability on the categories where volume is growing, hold range on the categories that are tracking inflation, and cut the tail that sells in single units. The risk in a slow season is not empty shelves in the best sellers, it is a distribution list that still carries last year's breadth and therefore spreads the same replenishment budget across more facings than the demand supports.
FAQ
Why does a 4.9 per cent average mislead a space review?
Because the groups behind it range from 8.1 per cent to 1.7 per cent. An average that mixes a growing pharmacy aisle with a shrinking department floor tells a store team nothing about which facing to add or cut.
How can a retailer tell price growth from volume growth?
Compare category value growth with the matching CPI component. Food retailing at 3.3 per cent against food price inflation of 3.2 per cent means volume is flat, so the shelf plan should hold rather than expand.
Which measure should rank replenishment work in a slow season?
Category on-shelf rate weighted by category growth. The same out-of-stock costs more in a category growing at 8.1 per cent than in one tracking inflation, and the weighted ranking makes that visible to a store team.
Does fast growth in small states justify more stock there?
Only after checking absolute contribution. The Northern Territory grew 9.1 per cent on a $361.1 million base, which is a small addition next to New South Wales adding close to $460 million at 4.0 per cent.
