As of October 29, 2026, the latest Acosta Group Affordability Tracker puts the share of shoppers comfortable affording groceries and household essentials at 53 percent, down from 68 percent in January. Purchasing power improved slightly over the same period, which turns a 15-point fall into a statement about sentiment rather than income, and it changes how consumer demand shows up in a basket.
Comfort fell 15 points while purchasing power improved
The tracker pairs a purchasing-power measure, built from NIQ basket pricing and Bureau of Labor Statistics earnings data, with shopper research from Acosta's own community panel. Pricing runs through September 5 and earnings through the second quarter. That design lets the report separate what households can afford from what they believe they can afford, and the two have moved apart.
The wider data agrees on direction. NIQ puts CPG inflation at 2.6 percent in August against 3.4 percent overall, with gas prices doing most of the damage, and consumer confidence down 8.4 points year on year. When the cost of getting to the store rises faster than the cost of the basket, the weekly trip becomes a decision rather than a habit. Category growth now depends on holding that trip rather than on expanding it.
Private label is the first substitution
Private label has moved from substitute to default. In the September wave of the PDG Insights Diverse Consumer Pulse study, 36 percent of consumers said they prefer store brands over national brands, up from 29 percent a year earlier, and another 39 percent saw the two as interchangeable. That is roughly three in four shoppers who no longer need persuading.
Purchasing power is flat, so the basket gets edited
Acosta's reading is that the affordability recovery has stabilised while shoppers keep adjusting where they shop and what they buy. Those habits were formed during the inflation surge and have not been given up, which is why a small improvement in purchasing power produces almost no change in behaviour.
The commercial implication is that value is no longer only price. Acosta's recommendation to brands is to communicate the quality and benefits that justify a purchase, with value extending to convenience, package size and confidence that the product will meet household needs. A listing that answers only the price question is competing on the one dimension every rival can match.
| Signal | Latest reading | Direction | What it changes in a listing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shopper comfort | 53 percent in August | Down from 68 percent in January | Lead with pack size and use-up value |
| CPG inflation | 2.6 percent in August | Below overall 3.4 percent | Hold price and explain the difference |
| Private label preference | 36 percent | Up from 29 percent a year earlier | Defend with a specific, testable claim |
| Consumer confidence | Down 8.4 points year on year | Falling | Shorten the decision path |
What the tracker cannot see
A sentiment index cannot tell you which item left the basket. That requires listing-level data: search terms that end without a purchase, add-to-cart rates that fall while views hold, and review text that starts mentioning price. The tracker sets the context, and the listing data locates the loss. Used alone, either one produces a confident answer that is half wrong.
Reading the edit before it reaches the listing
The sequence is deliberately narrow: one category, four weeks, three signals. What makes it usable is that every signal already exists in platform reporting, so the exercise costs analyst time rather than new tooling. Categories that show all three at once are the ones where a pack-size or bundle change pays for itself quickly.
FAQ
What is the Acosta Affordability Tracker?
A series that pairs a grocery purchasing-power measure, built from NIQ basket pricing and Bureau of Labor Statistics earnings data, with Acosta's own shopper research.
Why did comfort fall while purchasing power improved?
Because the two measure different things. Acosta's reading is that small gains in purchasing power give households little breathing room once other costs are counted.
Is private label really taking share?
The survey data points that way. 36 percent prefer store brands, up from 29 percent, and another 39 percent see them as interchangeable with national brands.
What should a brand change first?
The listing's value argument. Pack size, convenience and a testable quality claim do more than a deeper discount once shoppers already assume the category is expensive.
