As of October 28, 2026, Numerator research on holiday toy shopping makes one point that should reset how the category is merchandised: four in five toy-purchasing households plan to buy toys and games this season, nearly one-third of planned buyers intend to buy for themselves, and almost half plan to buy for another adult. In the 2025 season, 70% of toy and game shoppers had no children in their household. For e-commerce and category teams, the implication is that the purchase occasion has widened beyond gifting for children, and a product page built only around age ranges is now missing the larger part of the audience.
Four in five households plan to buy, and a third buy for themselves
Numerator analysed toy purchases from the 2025 holiday season and surveyed more than 1,000 shoppers who bought at least two toys between June 22 and September 22, 2026. The sample is therefore people who already buy toys rather than the general population, which is the right base for understanding purchase intent but not for sizing the market.
The generational split is where the data gets useful. Millennials are especially likely to buy for children in their household, while Gen Z shoppers are as likely to buy for themselves as for a child at home, and Boomers are more likely to shop for children outside their household. Three generations, three different purchase occasions, one category page trying to serve all of them.
70% of buyers had no children at home
That single statistic reframes the category. If seven in ten toy and game shoppers have no children at home, then the dominant purchase occasion is not a parent buying for a child but an adult buying for themselves, for another adult, or for a child they do not live with. Merchandising that assumes a parent in the household is optimising for the minority case, and it misreads where consumer demand now sits.
The practical consequence is on the product page. Age range is the first filter most toy listings offer, but it answers a question that a self-purchasing adult is not asking. That shopper is asking whether the item fits an interest, a hobby or a collection, and the attributes that answer that question are usually buried below the fold.
Category boundaries blur when adults shop for themselves
Adults buying for themselves change what counts as a competing product. A board game bought as a gift for a child competes with other toys; the same game bought for a household of adults competes with streaming subscriptions, books and hobby supplies. The category boundary is set by the occasion, not by the product classification.
This is visible in the stated priorities. For children, shoppers prioritise age appropriateness and wish lists, followed by creativity, quality and durability, and educational value. For adults, hobbies and personal interests matter more. Two different decision frameworks applied to overlapping assortments, which means a single set of page modules cannot serve both well.
Brand consideration reflects the same overlap. LEGO leads at 48% and Disney at 44%, both brands that span child and adult buyers. Their advantage is not that they are better known among parents; it is that they are already acceptable in both purchase occasions, so a shopper does not have to switch brands when the occasion changes.
Where the money actually goes
Planned category choices are broad, and the ranking matters more than the absolute numbers because it tells a brand where to place its assortment bets for the next six weeks. Games and puzzles sit high on that list alongside arts and crafts, which is consistent with a self-purchasing adult audience rather than a gift-only one. Read as a signal of consumer demand, the ordering suggests category growth this season will come from consumable, project-based items rather than from the licensed toy aisle alone.
| Category | Share citing it | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Arts and crafts | 49% | Broadest appeal across generations |
| Board games | Second | Fits both adult and family occasions |
| Building sets | Third | Strong with adult hobby buyers |
| Puzzles and brainteasers | Fourth | Skews to older self-purchasers |
Spending expectations are mixed and roughly balanced: about two in five shoppers expect to spend the same as last year, one-third expect to spend more, and roughly one-quarter expect to spend less. Gen Z and Millennials are more likely to expect increases, while Gen X and Boomers are more likely to cut back, which lines up with the self-purchase pattern.
Timing is already advanced. By early October, about 40% of planned buyers had started, including nearly half of Boomers and older shoppers. Nearly three-quarters expect to purchase online and nearly three in five plan to shop in stores, with Amazon and Walmart leading shopping intent, followed by Target, club stores, and value and dollar stores.
Arts and crafts lead at 49%
Arts and crafts being the most cited category across generations is consistent with the self-purchase finding. Craft supplies are consumable, project-based and easy to buy for oneself, which makes them less dependent on a gift occasion than a building set or a doll. A category that works as a self-purchase also works earlier in the season, which fits the 40% who had already started buying by early October.
For brands in that space, the merchandising implication is that the page should support project completion rather than gift selection. Shoppers buying for themselves are more likely to need refills, instructions and compatibility information, and less likely to need gift wrapping or age suitability guidance.
What this means for product pages in November
The first change is to stop treating age range as the primary filter. It should remain available, but the default browse order should reflect interest and occasion, because that is how the largest buyer group is actually shopping. The second is to make self-purchase a visible path rather than an inference: a shopper buying a board game for their own household should not have to pass through a gift-finder flow to reach it.
The third change concerns discovery. Children remain the top source of gift ideas at 54%, followed by friends and family at 46%, and online resources, in-store displays, browsing and events each influence more than half of shoppers. Only 6% cite AI shopping tools, which is a useful corrective to the assumption that conversational search has already reshaped this category. It has not, at least not for gift ideation.
The fourth is inventory timing. With 40% of buyers already shopping in early October and nearly three-quarters intending to buy online, the availability window that matters most sits before the peak weeks, not during them. A page that is fully merchandised by mid-November is merchandised for the shoppers who started late.
FAQ
Why does the 70% figure matter more than the one-third figure?
Because it describes the base. If seven in ten toy shoppers have no children at home, the dominant occasion is adult purchase, and a page built around parents is optimising for the minority case.
Should age range be removed from toy product pages?
No, it should remain available. The argument is that it should not be the default browse order, because self-purchasing adults search by interest rather than by age.
Does AI shopping tool use change the picture?
Only 6% cite AI tools as a source of gift ideas, so conversational search has not reshaped gift ideation in this category. Online resources and in-store displays influence far more shoppers.
What is the biggest timing risk?
Being late. About 40% of planned buyers had started by early October, so a page fully merchandised by mid-November is ready for the shoppers who started last.
