Halloween Spending Pullback Alters Holiday Assortments

Americans plan to spend an average of $162 on Halloween this year, down 16% from $192 in 2025, according to a LendingTree survey of 2,000 consumers. The share of shoppers planning any Halloween purchase has fallen from 90% to 80%, and among those still buying, 61% say they will skip some purchases, led by candy at 35%, decorations at 31% and costumes at 29%. Nearly a quarter expect to pay for Halloween with debt. The pullback is an early signal for the wider holiday season.

Key Conclusions

The category-level cuts are more informative than the headline decline. Retail Dive reports that 61% of shoppers (Retail Dive) intend to skip some purchases, with candy, decorations and costumes the first to go, while 24% expect to fund purchases with debt. Discretionary add-ons are being trimmed before core gifting, which tells merchants where price elasticity is highest in the assortment.

Assortment planning has to respond faster than a seasonal reset allows. When a third of shoppers cut decor, the risk is not just lost decor sales but unsold inventory that must be carried or marked down after October 31. Retailers with granular sell-through data by store and category can shift orders mid-season; those working from national averages usually discover the problem after the window closes.

Where the Cuts Land First

Candy, decor and costumes

Candy is the largest skip category at 35%, which is notable because it has historically been the most price-insensitive part of the basket. When consumers cut candy, they are often trading down to private label rather than leaving the category, so the sales impact may show up as mix shift rather than unit decline. Merchants should track private-label penetration separately from total category performance.

Decorations and costumes follow at 31% and 29%. Both are highly discretionary and both carry markdown risk, since their value collapses once the holiday passes. Ordering conservatively and reserving open-to-buy for late in-season replenishment is generally safer than committing full quantities in the initial buy.

Consumer Credit as a Warning Signal

Debt-funded holiday spending

The finding that 24% of shoppers expect to use debt deserves attention beyond Halloween. Debt-funded seasonal spending tends to compress the following quarter's discretionary budget, which matters for merchants whose fiscal year depends on holiday sell-through. Tracking credit usage indicators alongside transaction data gives a forward view that same-store sales alone cannot provide.

Payment mix is a practical proxy. If installment and buy-now-pay-later share rises while basket size stays flat, consumers are stretching purchasing power rather than expanding it. Merchants that monitor payment mix by category can anticipate demand softness before it appears in the sales line.

Best Practices

Plan inventory by store-level sell-through

Set order quantities using store-level sell-through for the prior two seasons rather than national averages, and reserve part of the buy for in-season replenishment. This keeps decor and costume exposure manageable when demand softens, and it lets high-performing stores capture late demand that a conservative national plan would miss.

Track payment mix as a demand indicator

Report installment and buy-now-pay-later penetration alongside basket size each week, by category. Rising credit usage with flat baskets signals that consumers are stretching budgets, which historically precedes discretionary pullback. Treating payment mix as a leading indicator gives merchandising teams time to adjust assortment depth.

Common Mistakes

The most common mistake is reading the decline as a Halloween-only story. A 16% drop in planned spending combined with rising debt usage points to broader budget pressure that will shape the winter holiday season. Merchants that treat it as a single-event dip may carry the same optimism into their largest quarter.

A second mistake is cutting marketing spend in the categories consumers are abandoning. Candy and decor still drive traffic, and the shoppers trimming these items are often the same ones buying gifts later. Reducing visibility in those categories can cost more in lost trips than it saves in promotional budget.

Summary

Halloween 2026 shows a consumer trimming discretionary add-ons while leaning more on credit. The category detail, candy first at 35%, then decorations and costumes, gives merchants a concrete map of where elasticity bites hardest. Payment mix and store-level sell-through are the two data streams that convert this signal into ordering decisions.

The value of the survey is its timing. Because it lands weeks before the winter holiday buying peaks, retailers still have room to adjust order quantities and open-to-buy. Acting on category-level evidence now is far cheaper than marking down excess decor in November.