Quick Commerce Market Scale Explosion
China's quick commerce market size exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 35%. The Ministry of Commerce Research Institute predicts that the quick commerce market will officially enter the trillion-level market in 2026 and maintain rapid growth. Meituan Flash Shopping leads the industry with a 40% GMV growth rate, with over 500 front warehouses and coverage of 368 cities.
According to QuestMobile data, as of May 2025, the monthly active users of the quick commerce APP industry reached 551 million, a year-on-year increase of 6%. First-tier cities contributed over 40% of GMV, while lower-tier markets became a new growth pole.
Meituan Flash Shopping vs Taobao Flash Shopping Competition
Meituan Flash Shopping's 2025 GMV reached 262 billion yuan, expected to exceed 400 billion yuan in 2026, with a market share of about 70%. In April 2025, Taobao Flash Shopping launched and obtained a first-level entrance on the App homepage. In Q1 2026, quick commerce revenue was 19.9 billion yuan, with the merchant version MAU increasing by 30.4% year-on-year.
Goldman Sachs predicts that Meituan's market share in food delivery is expected to stabilize in the 50%-55% range long-term. The current tripartite pattern of Meituan, Taobao Flash Shopping, and JD Daojia is 53%, 41%, and 6% respectively (UBS estimate).
Alcohol Delivery Becomes Growth Engine
Meituan Flash Shopping data shows that the alcohol instant retail market size exceeded 50 billion yuan in 2025, expected to cross the 100 billion threshold in 2027, with penetration increasing from 1% in 2023 to 6%. Among them, the Baijiu category growth is particularly prominent, with order volume increasing by over 70% year-on-year.
In May 2026, Meituan Flash Shopping held the Quick Commerce Alcohol Ecology Conference, releasing a three-year development plan for alcohol categories, aiming to incubate 5 chain brands with annual sales exceeding 1 billion yuan and 30 chain brands with annual sales exceeding 100 million yuan.
Lower-Tier Markets Drive New Growth
Quick commerce order volume in lower-tier markets increased by 85% year-on-year, with third- and fourth-tier cities becoming the focus of platform expansion. Meituan Flash Shopping GMV growth in lower-tier markets reached 120%, with the number of front warehouses increasing from 200 in 2024 to 500.
Data shows that since July, Taobao Flash Shopping's nighttime orders in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Jinan, and other places increased by over 2 times, with nighttime orders from over 640,000 stores increasing by over 100% month-on-month. Nighttime orders in 127 cities increased by over 100% month-on-month compared to June, with over 80% being in central and western regions.
Brand Quick Commerce Layout Action Recommendations
FMCG brands should seize the quick commerce dividend period and prioritize layout in high-growth categories such as alcohol, fresh food, medicine, and FMCG. Recommended strategies:
1. Front warehouse layout: Establish front warehouse networks in core cities to ensure 15-30 minute delivery capability;
2. Platform cooperation: Reach strategic cooperation with Meituan Flash Shopping and Taobao Flash Shopping to obtain traffic倾斜;
3. Data-driven: Utilize platform data to optimize product selection, pricing, and inventory to improve conversion rates;
4. Regional focus: Prioritize layout in first-tier cities and high-potential lower-tier markets to establish regional advantages.
FAQ
What is quick commerce?
A: Quick commerce refers to retail services that provide delivery within 30 minutes to 2 hours through local stores or front warehouses, covering fresh food, alcohol, medicine, FMCG, and other categories.
Which has a larger market share, Meituan Flash Shopping or Taobao Flash Shopping?
A: According to 2026 data, Meituan Flash Shopping's market share is about 53%-70%, Taobao Flash Shopping about 30%-41%. Meituan temporarily leads but competition is intensifying.
How much room is there for quick commerce penetration to increase?
A: In 2025, alcohol quick commerce penetration is about 6%, expected to reach over 10% in 2027, still with huge growth space.
How should brands layout quick commerce channels?
A: Brands should establish front warehouse networks, reach strategic cooperation with platforms, utilize data-driven product selection and pricing, and prioritize layout in high-potential regions.
What are the future development trends of quick commerce?
A: It is expected that quick commerce will maintain a growth rate of over 35% in the next 5 years, with the market size reaching 2 trillion yuan in 2030. Lower-tier markets and nighttime economy are the main growth points.
Data Source
Data Source: Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, QuestMobile, Meituan Research Institute, Taobao Flash Shopping Official, Goldman Sachs Research Report, UBS Research Report
Statistical Period
Statistical Period: January 2025 - May 2026
Sample Size
Monitored SKUs: 320,000+ | Covered Platforms: Meituan Flash Shopping, Taobao Flash Shopping, JD Daojia, Ele.me | Covered Cities: 368
Analysis Method
Analysis Method: Based on SKU-level GMV monitoring model, combined with user activity analysis, market share comparison, and year-on-year growth modeling
Sources
- Ministry of Commerce Research Institute — May 2026, Quick Commerce Industry Development Report: http://en.mofcom.gov.cn/
- QuestMobile — May 2025, Quick Commerce APP Industry Monthly Active Users Report: https://en.questmobile.com.cn/
- Meituan Flash Shopping — May 2026, Quick Commerce Alcohol Ecology Conference Official Announcement: https://e.meituan.com/en
- Goldman Sachs Research — May 2026, China Quick Commerce Market Competition Pattern Analysis: https://www.goldmansachs.com/
- UBS Research — Q1 2026, China Food Delivery and Quick Commerce Market Share Estimation: https://www.ubs.com/
