As of November 7, 2026, Visa's holiday survey of about 4,660 US adults finds that 27 percent plan to spend on physical gifts while only 15 percent prioritise spending on experiences for others, even though more than half put travel and live events at the top of their own wish lists. For anyone running a store network, that gap is the most useful number in the report, because it says where the money will actually be handed over.
Goods still take the wallet
The reason is affordability rather than preference. Airfares are up more than 22 percent year on year according to the consumer price index, and September consumer prices rose 3.7 percent annually, so a shopper who wants a trip often buys a gift instead. Visa's principal US economist, Michael Brown, framed it as a trade-off: households travelling more will gift less, and the reverse also holds, which is why physical goods absorb the budget when travel gets expensive.
What that means for store traffic
| Signal | Reported figure | Store implication |
|---|---|---|
| Gift spending intention | 27 percent physical gifts | Gift-ready assortment carries the season |
| Experience spending intention | 15 percent for others | Service counters matter less than shelves |
| Value switching | A third of households under 100,000 dollars | Entry price points decide the visit |
| Affluent travel spend | Only households above 200,000 dollars spent more on trips | Trade area income still segments the estate |
| Nominal growth | 4.5 percent, or 1.1 percent real | Volume is flat, so share is the only growth |
The availability question follows directly. Gift weeks concentrate demand into a narrow set of lines and sizes, and on-shelf availability is what decides whether that demand becomes revenue or a walk to the next shop. A store carrying the right gift assortment but missing two sizes on the Saturday before the deadline has the same sales as a store that never stocked it, and the difference only shows up if availability is measured by line rather than by category.
A 1.1 percent real growth rate is close to a zero-sum season. If the category is not growing, every incremental sale is taken from another store, another channel or another brand, and the trade area decides which. That is why the income split in the survey matters more than the headline: households above 200,000 dollars are still spending on travel, while a third of households below 100,000 dollars intend to switch to cheaper brands or stores, and those two groups do not shop in the same places.
The pattern in the survey is not a new form of consumer demand so much as a reallocation of it, and the category growth that follows will be uneven. Gift sets, home fragrance, small appliances and beauty bundles pick up the budget that a cancelled trip frees, while luggage and travel accessories lose exactly the same money. A store that plans its holiday assortment on last year's category mix will stock the wrong thing in the right trade area.
The store is where the gift gets decided
Gift buying is a deadline purchase with a fit problem, which is why it still favours physical retail: the shopper wants to see the object, compare two options and leave with it. Wayfair's quarter illustrates the same pull from the other direction, with the company citing the opening of new stores among the reasons it gained share in a market its chief financial officer describes as roughly flat. Stores are being used as a consideration channel, not only as a transaction point.
Promotion depth is the pressure valve
E.l.f. Beauty grew net sales 51 percent to 520.8 million dollars across retail and ecommerce channels, and its retail shelf presence is part of why the brand is found at all. But the same quarter shows the other side of a value-seeking season: the company cut the price of about 10 percent of its units by a dollar after receiving tariff refunds. When shoppers are switching on price, the brands that can fund a cut without losing margin take the shelf.
Planning the last eight weeks
The practical conclusion is that store planning should start from the trade area rather than from the national forecast. A 4.5 percent nominal number hides a 1.1 percent real number, and the difference is made up of price rather than units. Stores in catchments where households are trading down need entry price points and clear value signage; stores in affluent catchments need gift depth and availability, because that shopper is still travelling and still buying.
FAQ
Why do physical gifts beat experiences this year?
Affordability. Airfares are up more than 22 percent and consumer prices rose 3.7 percent annually, so shoppers who want to travel often buy a gift instead.
How much real growth is in the forecast?
Visa projects 4.5 percent nominal holiday sales growth, but only 1.1 percent once inflation is excluded, down from 1.3 percent last season.
Which shoppers are switching?
About a third of households earning under 100,000 dollars say they will move to lower-cost brands or stores for gifts.
What should stores change first?
Entry price points and gift-ready assortment, allocated by trade area income rather than by a single national plan.
